Over half a century ago, an embattled Democratic president chose not to run for reelection. It was March 1968, and the president was Lyndon B. Johnson. This decision led to a tumultuous fight to replace him, marked by discord and violence. The Democratic National Convention in Chicago saw chaos inside the convention hall and bloody clashes between police and anti-Vietnam War demonstrators in the streets. The party eventually nominated Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, but left Chicago divided and demoralized, resulting in the election of Republican Richard M. Nixon.

While no one expects a repeat of those events this summer, the extraordinary circumstances of 1968 serve as a reminder that replacing President Biden as the Democratic nominee is no easy task and could have many unintended consequences. Fears about the authoritarian potential of a second Trump presidency have alarmed Democrats, many independents, and even some Republicans. The goal of defeating former President Donald Trump unites Democrats, yet Biden’s struggles in Thursday’s debate have left the party divided on the best way to prevent Trump from becoming president again.

The distress among Democrats is understandable. Biden failed to alleviate concerns about his age and mental and physical acuity during the debate, instead raising fresh doubts about his capacity to serve another term. The pressing issue for Democrats now is what to do next.

Biden’s team has moved swiftly to quash talk of replacing him. Early Friday, they put out the word that he would not step out of the race voluntarily. While flash polls showed Trump as the overwhelming winner of the debate, Biden’s allies claimed that some focus groups offered a more nuanced conclusion, noting that while Biden had some terrible moments, Trump also left viewers frustrated. Biden’s team is quietly monitoring key party leaders for signs of unrest.




Biden’s personal effort to calm his nervous party began with a fiery speech at a rally on Friday in North Carolina. The contrast between the animated Biden who stood before a crowd of enthusiastic supporters in Raleigh and the halting, sometimes confused president who appeared on the debate stage in Atlanta could not have been starker. “I know I’m not a young man,” he said to cheers of “Joe! Joe! Joe!”

“Folks, I don’t walk as easily as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. And I know like millions of Americans know: When you get knocked down, you get back up.”

These scripted words were delivered with vigor, contrasting sharply with the unscripted Biden from the debate hosted by CNN. However, as Biden’s supporters were quick to point out, one debate does not define a candidate, but one rally cannot erase the impact of a poor debate performance that highlighted Biden’s greatest vulnerability.

Tens of millions tuned into at least some of the prime-time debate, whereas only a tiny fraction watched the daytime rally. The rally was a way for Biden’s team to buy time, trying to rebalance the campaign and work behind the scenes to prevent talk of a new nominee or an entirely new Democratic ticket from turning into concrete action. Hours after Biden’s rally in North Carolina, Trump campaigned in Virginia, delivering a speech that echoed his debate performance. He avoided the interruptions that marked the first debate in 2020, delivering his prepared talking points with enough consistency to make his arguments.

Despite this, Trump lied extensively throughout the debate, giving fact-checkers plenty to correct. Biden tried to address Trump’s falsehoods but was neither crisp nor specific enough. A second debate is scheduled for Sept. 10, hosted by ABC, but it is uncertain whether Biden will get another chance to show that Thursday’s performance was an aberration.

When asked about his debate performance on Friday morning, Biden responded, “It’s hard to debate a liar.” This raises questions about why he wasn’t better prepared, as Trump’s propensity for falsehoods was entirely predictable. If Biden and his team had a strategy to counteract Trump’s falsehoods, its execution was clearly lacking. Moving his party off the ledge and back to his side will require more steps. Friday’s efforts — the rally, the insistence that he will not step aside, and talk of money raised from grassroots donors — were important but not sufficient. Notably, there were no defections among party leaders, despite calls from some prominent party strategists and pundits for a new nominee.




The Democratic establishment is holding steady for now, but House and Senate leaders must prioritize their members’ interests. House Democrats aim to regain control from Republicans, while Senate Democrats are fighting to hold on to their slim majority. In the coming weeks, nervous Democrats will be assessing Biden’s performance as a candidate while keeping an eye on the polls. Any more slips by the president could be devastating, as could a notable shift in poll numbers toward Trump, who already has a narrow advantage in battleground states. If Biden falls further behind, the alarms triggered on Thursday could grow louder.

The campaign must also worry about fundraising. Before the debate, there were signs of slippage, although the campaign raised a significant amount of money the day of and after the debate. Beyond reassuring party insiders, Biden must reassure concerned voters. It could take more than a few rallies or attacks on Trump as a threat to democracy to win over the voters needed to prevent Trump from securing an electoral college majority and returning to the Oval Office.

Technically, delegates to the August convention in Chicago could replace Biden. They have the power, but such a move would be extraordinary, and those advocating for it lack a clear strategy or candidate. Biden could step aside voluntarily, but then what? Would he endorse Vice President Harris as the nominee or open the process to others? Harris’s public approval ratings are as weak as Biden’s, but she represents an essential Democratic constituency: Black women, who were pivotal in saving Biden’s candidacy during the 2020 primaries. Harris will need more visibility, not just as Biden’s most loyal advocate but also for her potential impact on the electorate. The campaign’s immediate deployment of Harris for post-debate interviews signaled their belief in her importance to bolster the president and show solidarity.




Democrats have other capable younger leaders who could be in the mix if they decide a different candidate is needed to win in November. Potential candidates include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Georgia Sen. Raphael G. Warnock, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. While party activists see them as credible and attractive aspirants for 2028, mounting a presidential campaign now is another issue. They are little known nationally and untested in presidential politics.

A fresh ticket might excite an electorate dissatisfied with the choice of Trump vs. Biden, but any Democratic newcomers would carry significant risks. After Thursday’s debate, few Democrats are discounting the risks of continuing with Biden as their nominee, highlighting the party’s dilemma four months out from the election.