The European Union is on the brink of a political shift to the right, as citizens from its 450 million-strong bloc cast their votes in a crucial election. This election will determine the EU's approach to significant challenges, including relations with a hostile Russia, industrial competition from China and the United States, climate change, and immigration.


Voting commenced on Thursday in the Netherlands and continued in other countries on Friday and Saturday. The majority of EU votes, however, are being cast today, with major countries like France, Germany, Poland, and Spain opening their polls, while Italy holds a second day of voting.


Dolors Montserrat, the leading candidate for Spain’s conservative People’s Party, emphasized the importance of the election, stating it would “decide the future of Spain and the future of Europe” as she cast her ballot.



### Centre-Right Leads the Way


The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is expected to remain the largest group in the European Parliament, positioning its candidate, incumbent Ursula von der Leyen of Germany, for a second term as head of the European Commission. However, von der Leyen might require support from right-wing nationalists, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, to secure a parliamentary majority, potentially increasing the influence of Meloni and her allies.


The newly elected Parliament will vote on and likely amend numerous pieces of legislation over the next five years. With a rightward shift, the Parliament may show less enthusiasm for climate change policies and EU enlargement reforms, while advocating more strongly for measures to curb immigration.


### Latest Poll Projections


According to a Sunday projection by Europe Elects, the EPP could gain five seats compared to the last Parliament, totaling 183 seats. The Socialists, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, are expected to lose four seats, bringing them to 136 seats.


The European Greens, facing backlash over costly EU policies on CO2 emissions, are predicted to be significant losers, with Sunday’s poll indicating a drop to 56 deputies, a loss of 16 seats.


The liberal group Renew Europe is also expected to suffer, particularly with Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National poised to outperform French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance in France. The poll forecasts Renew Europe's losses at 13 seats, ending with 89.


Conversely, the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are likely to gain five seats, totaling 73, while the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group could gain eight seats, reaching a total of 67.


The poll also suggests that additional deputies from the currently non-affiliated group, totaling 79, might join the right and far-right groups.



### Concerns Over Far-Right Gains


At a polling station in northern Paris, 18-year-old student Elisa Dubois expressed concern about the rising far-right influence across Europe. “If we also do it in France, they can unite and it is quite dangerous,” she said.


The European Parliament will release an EU-wide exit poll around 8:30 pm Central European Time (CET) and provide a first provisional result after 11:00 pm CET once the final votes, in Italy, have been cast.


### Rightward Shift Implications


The expected decline in seats for pro-European liberals and Greens will reduce the majority held by the centre-right and centre-left, complicating the passage of new EU laws and efforts to increase European integration.


Many voters, affected by the cost of living, concerns about migration, and the green transition's expenses, as well as geopolitical tensions like the war in Ukraine, have turned to hard and far-right parties for an alternative.


“Whoever believes that we need a change of course and that things can be done much better in Brussels has only one alternative, which is Vox,” said Jorge Buxade, the leading candidate for Spain’s far-right party, after voting in Madrid.


In the Netherlands, exit polls from Thursday indicated that nationalist Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party is set to secure seven of the 29 Dutch seats in the EU assembly, a significant increase from zero in 2019, following a large win in last year’s national election. His Freedom Party will fall just one seat short of the combined total of a Socialist Democrat-Greens alliance.


In Belgium, voters are also electing federal and regional chambers, with forecasts predicting record support for the far-right Flemish separatist party Vlaams Belang. Despite their potential success, they might still be kept from office by other parties. The government of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is expected to remain in a caretaker role for several months until a new multi-party coalition can be formed.